Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
