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Only two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, and precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Unexpected Results

How was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for the progressive now. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does because then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to Trump tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.