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Preamble

The inherent challenges of group stage tennis typically lead to at this point of the season-ending championships fans frequently find themselves scratching our heads, scrambling about for a mathematical tool and attempting to calculate the complex permutations of qualification. But tonight’s match between Alexander Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, fortunately, is easy. It's a direct elimination: the winner earns a semifinal matchup against Carlos Alcaraz at this year-end tournament; the unsuccessful competitor is eliminated.

Zverev is the favourite for this: the world No 3 is the more accomplished player, has been the champion at this tournament twice before and is ahead in their direct encounters 6-3, having won both their past encounters on an indoor hard court.

However … this particular court on which Felix has secured the bulk of his trophies, he is full of confidence after his remarkable turnaround against Ben Shelton on Wednesday and he eliminated the German in the US Open third round in late summer. Furthermore, the playing speed is higher in the host city than at the US Open venue, which works even more in the Canadian's favor.

If the German player is reserved, like he was against Sinner, and the Canadian presses the European player with his powerful serves and fearless play, there is a strong chance the 25-year-old Canadian – the earlier standout who was earlier slated before Alcaraz and Sinner to succeed the Big Three – who obtains the uncertain distinction of playing against the top-ranked player on Saturday.

Action commences: at approximately 8:30 PM in Turin, 7.30pm GMT.